Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.263746 0.320792 0.390457 0.482892 0.603983 0.759583 0.978588
2025-04-27 0.163093 0.215447 0.286536 0.392772 0.552304 0.791316 1.193830
2025-05-04 0.113034 0.159525 0.228369 0.342219 0.535337 0.869636 1.544015
2025-05-11 0.081034 0.120693 0.183797 0.297647 0.513009 0.940068 1.972964
2025-05-18 0.058800 0.091428 0.146458 0.253224 0.475167 0.972902 2.407438
2025-05-25 0.043920 0.070801 0.118440 0.216910 0.439729 1.000533 2.926187
2025-06-01 0.035418 0.059264 0.103768 0.202208 0.446834 1.150125 4.149136
2025-06-08 0.029261 0.050654 0.092535 0.191302 0.460255 1.346266 6.151826
2025-06-15 0.024856 0.044444 0.084598 0.185470 0.486981 1.635948 9.899363
2025-06-22 0.021393 0.039400 0.077913 0.180611 0.516759 2.004086 16.760568
2025-06-29 0.018123 0.034143 0.069553 0.168531 0.517312 2.270113 25.880482
2025-07-06 0.014402 0.027347 0.056294 0.138570 0.436322 2.005298 25.893162
2025-07-13 0.012561 0.024417 0.051856 0.133877 0.456031 2.429690 48.479115
2025-07-20 0.011298 0.022539 0.049573 0.135164 0.505306 3.241443 123.418084
2025-07-27 0.010331 0.021162 0.048262 0.139415 0.577218 4.607956 460.849779
2025-08-03 0.009350 0.019583 0.046061 0.139908 0.635062 6.268103 2267.285221
2025-08-10 0.008321 0.017720 0.042662 0.134669 0.657370 7.761252 13860.365766
2025-08-17 0.007391 0.015957 0.039174 0.127768 0.664399 9.251308 192833.081824
2025-08-24 0.006796 0.014947 0.037682 0.128577 0.731410 13.084081 NaN
2025-08-31 0.006277 0.014051 0.036337 0.129575 0.806881 18.993057 NaN
2025-09-07 0.005854 0.013341 0.035416 0.132249 0.908183 29.614033 NaN
2025-09-14 0.005466 0.012666 0.034461 0.134462 1.016836 47.350287 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005010 0.011737 0.032458 0.130454 1.054736 64.429090 NaN